Independent Research Group on the right path
The Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 investigation team has based their working hypothesis for the last six months on the assumption that MH370 made an abrupt turn south then continued at a constant speed and direction for 5½ hours on autopilot, ran out of fuel and crashed in the Southern Indian Ocean leaving no debris.
The right paths below assumes the plane was not on autopilot and continued on a northwesterly path past the last radar detection over the Straits of Malacca to the Andaman Islands turned southeast and then flew for two hours making a final turn northwest just before entering the Australian over the horizon radar (JORN) coverage. The Boeing 777 then flew across Indonesia and Malaysia at low altitude through radar blind spots before ending its flight 260 kilometers southwest of Ho Chi Minh City in the South China Sea.. The slower speed paths are flying at a lower attitude burning the same amount of fuel. All five paths with an average speed between 375 to 486 knots all match Imarsat BFO and BTO data and the all impacted the the water within a 17km impact zone. Google Earth map..
Before the19:41 handshake MH370 made at least 4 turns within 2 hours and 19 minutes. The pilot changed airspeed and climbed as high as 45,000ft and descended as low as 5,000ft using “terrain masking” to avoid radar detection. The Joint Investigation Team (JIT)comprised specialists from Malaysia, China, US, UK and France assumed that after the 19:41 handshake MH370 flew on a straight path on autopilot at a constant air speed with no climb or decent for 4 hours and 38 minutes flying threw Australia's OTH Air Defense radar. JIT states in the ATSB report the aircraft exhausted its fuel supply and began a likely spiraling descent crashing into the Southern Indian Ocean . No surface debris was found along the Indian Ocean7th arc.
The flight path matches Inmarsat's Burst Frequency Offset (BFO) measurements and the Burst Timing Offset (BTO) measurements
MH 370 flew at a lower altitude over Indonesia & Malaysia to avoid radar.
There is a very, very strong view that this aircraft will be resting on the seventh arc.
- Australia 's deputy prime minister, Warren Truss, 28 August 2014
NASA's infrared satellite images of the projected crash site.
Even if MH370 had entered the water intact, within hours hydraulic fluids and oils would have leaked out creating a carbon slick on the surface of sea. Absorbing the heat from the Sun the carbon hot spots were picked up by NASA's PODAAC (5 day combined images)sea surface temperature satellite. The "slick" expands on the satellite images consistent with the flow of the sea surface currents from March 8th to March 16th.
March 12 the hot spot is 20 km long
March 13 hot spot grows to 30 km long
The last 12 minutes of Flight MH 370
The Eyewitness Reports
1:30 a.m. (17:30 UTC) Sighting claim: Kota Bharu , Malaysia In the middle of the night, two fishermen near the Malaysia-Thailand border saw a plane flying low over the South China Sea . Fisherman Azid Ibrahim and a friend had taken people fishing that night off the coast of Kota Bharu . "I was fishing when I saw the plane -- it looked strange. Flying low. I told my friend that's not normal. Normally, it flies at 35,000 feet. But that night it touched the clouds. I thought the pilot must be crazy," Ibrahim said."It was really low. I saw the lights they looked like the size of a coconut," he said. "I followed the light for about five minutes before it disappeared."He said it was estimated that the location of his boat was about eight nautical miles northeast of Kuala Besar. Their fishing grounds lay under a flight path, but the predawn plane was unusual to see because of its low altitude, they said. The fishermen filed a police report about their sighting.
1:30 a.m. (17:30 UTC) Sightings claim: Kota Bharu , Malaysia Four police reports about a low-flying aircraft, believed to be the missing flight MH370, have been lodged by eyewitnesses from here, Tumpat and Bachok. Kelantan police chief Deputy Datuk Jalaluddin Abdul Rahman said according to the reports lodged on Sunday, the aircraft was sighted at Kuala Besar, Pantai Cahaya Bulan (both in Kota Baru), Geting (Tumpat) and Pantai Senok (Bachok). "Based on the reports, the plane was sighted between 1.30am and 1.45am.”
1:45 a.m. (17:30 UTC) Sighting claim: Ketereh , MalaysiaA businessman claimed that he saw a bright white light descending at high speed early Saturday morning. The sighting was made at 1.45am by Alif Fathi Abdul Hadi, 29, from the compound of his house in Ketereh, Malaysia Alif lodged a report with the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency at 11am yesterday, believing that the "white light" could possibly have been Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. He told the New Straits Times that the light looked like those used by aircraft during take-off and landing during night flights. Alif said he watched the lights for about five minutes before realizing it was descending. "I was walking towards the rear of my house when I saw the light, and wondered where it was heading to. The airspace here is like a highway for aircraft and they usually travel in routine patterns. Asked how he came to that conclusion, Alif said the aircraft he usually sees fly right across the sky for as far as his eyes could see, but the light he saw in the wee hours of Saturday disappeared from view behind some coconut trees. He said he thought nothing of it and went to sleep after that. Later that day, when he found out about MH370, he felt uneasy. Alif said he decided to lodge the report after relatives said he should do it, in case the light he saw was indeed MH370.
7:15 a.m. Vietnam time (00:15 UTC) Sighting claim: Oil rig off Vietnam A New Zealand man working on an oil rig off Vietnam claimed he saw a burning object in the sky Saturday morning; hours after the plane had taken off. Mike McKay of New Zealand was stationed on the Sona-Mercur oil rig on seas about 186 miles southeast of Vung Tau, a coastal Vietnamese town outside Ho Chi Minh City , according to CNN affiliate Radio New Zealand . McKay wrote of his sighting in an e-mail. "Gentlemen. I believe I saw the Malaysian Airlines flight come down. The timing is right. I tried to contact Malaysian and Vietnamese officials several days ago. But I do not know if the message has been received," he wrote last week. "I observed the plane burning at high altitude at a compass bearing of 265 to 275 degrees from our surface location. While I observed (the plane) it appeared to be in one piece. From when I first saw the burning (plane?) until the flames went out (at high altitude) was 10-15 seconds. There was no lateral movement so it was either coming toward our position stationary (falling) or going away from our location. The general position of the observation was perpendicular/south-west of the normal flight path and at a lower altitude than the normal flight paths," he wrote.
On March 14, 2014, Mike McKay gave a statement of events to Nguyen Ngoc Hung , the director of the Vietnam's Foreign Affairs Department. Speaking with reporters after the meeting, Nguyen said “Mr. Michael Jerome McKay statement has been forwarded to higher authorities in Hanoi. It will be studied and used in the search for Flight 370”. McKay's eyewitness report was discounted by the Vietnamese authorities at the time because it was at odds with radar sightings which indicate the plane traveled west and then south, rather than towards Beijing, its intended destination.
What's the odds that two airplanes would crash in different oceans on the same day and time 4,000 miles apart and both on Inmarsat's 7th arc?
Was the plane on fire? With MH 370's fuel supply expired, it's most likely that McKay observed the morning sun reflecting off of the spiraling plane giving the illusion of a fire. At 7:15 A.M. Vietnam time the sun was 16° above the horizon almost due east (98°E) of the oil rig and the plane was observed at 8° above the horizon almost due west (175° W). Using simple geometry the Sun would reflect off the body and wings of the plane between the altitude of 24,000 to 23,000 ft at a distance of 80 kilometers.
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© Copyright Randy Rolston 2014